Stocks, Bonds, and Inflation…The Year Ahead

2021 Consensus Market Themes

You Have to Know Where You’ve Been to Know Where You’re Going   The profile of the global equity market through the current recession has, so far, been more extreme than most cycles. The market fell into a recession much faster than average (the fastest since...
Stocks, Bonds, and Inflation…The Year Ahead

The Math of Holding Too Many Bonds

We thought AQR did a great job describing the history of hedges and the high cost of carry. Their conclusion is that hedges have proven too costly to be worth using. But what about the cost of owning bonds? Isn’t that where we are now? Surely a retiree portfolio is...
Stocks, Bonds, and Inflation…The Year Ahead

Process Over Politics

Left or right, blue or red, no matter the outcome on November 3rd, or even if there is no outcome on November 3rd, it won’t change the way we view portfolio construction. The source of returns will still be yield, growth, or valuation change.  What matters will still...
Stocks, Bonds, and Inflation…The Year Ahead

What if the Election Drags Out?

This year’s election feels unprecedented – that’s because it is. It is coming against the backdrop of a severe recession, a global pandemic, elevated unemployment, and social unrest. Not to mention, in the background of many investors head is the heated 2016...
Stocks, Bonds, and Inflation…The Year Ahead

Q3 2020 Recap : Aptus Chart Book

The Backdrop for the Remainder of 2020   The Good Better Economic Data – Economic data, which lags the stock market, hit rock-bottom as we expected during April and May, but early signs of a recovery have begun to appear. Just look at the jobs data. Better...