Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from the market bounce and poor sentiment, to earnings and the economy, to expectations for large vs. small stocks. Enjoy!
Beckham: It’s hard to classify this rally as a dead cat bounce, it’s been one of the better recoveries historically
Dave: and one that’s being achieved with no help from the bond market
Source: Raymond James as of 05.14.2025
Ten: Fund managers as a group seem reluctant to join the rally
Source: BofA as of 05.12.2025
Mark: with investor sentiment measures still tracking far more concern than euphoria
Data as of 05.09.2025
Brian: Speaking of sentiment, US consumers report themselves to be just as gloomy as fund managers
Graphic via WSJ as of 05.16.2025
Dave: with inflation expectations a particular sore spot and far above market and economist expectations
Data as of April 2025
John Luke: The ironic thing is that actual inflation measures continue to fall towards FOMC targets
Data as of 05.14.2025
John Luke: and CPI has been below expectations in each of the past 3 monthly reports
Data as of 05.14.2025
Brad: Walking back stated tariffs has been a big contributor to the market recovery, but Corporate America has been a big contributor as well
Data as of 05.13.2025
Dave: though the bar looks really high for the 2nd half of 2025
Source: Raymond James as of 05.09.2025
JD: Recession expectations are receding nicely, as investors re-embrace positive growth estimates
Data as of 05.09.2025
John Luke: as market participants digest the impact of tariffs that look to be higher but not as high as feared
Brad: Small cap stocks remain unable to sustainably outperform large caps
Data as of 05.15.2025
Dave: and concerns of higher rates won’t help their case
Dave: What small caps need is better earnings growth, which has been lacking for the past 9 quarters
Data as of 05.13.2025
Dave: with the constant hope that the improvement will come “next quarter”
Data as of 05.14.2025
John Luke: Markets are moving from the veggies (tariffs) to the dessert (lower taxes)
Source: CRFB as of 05.13.2025
John Luke: with uncertainty around the specs but a clear trend toward higher deficits
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