Charts Archives - Aptus Capital Advisors

The Market in Pictures, June 6

Aptus PM Team — Fri, 06 Jun 2025 11:17:53 +0000

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from rare timing setups and market breadth to the economy, earnings, and US/foreign market exposures. Enjoy!

Tariff Tantrum vs. Reality Check

Joseph: Since Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2, soft data (like surveys) has collapsed, while hard data (like jobs and spending) hasn’t budged. It’s a reminder that sentiment often reacts faster than the economy actually does—if it reacts at all.

Source: Citigroup as of 05.28.2025

Divergences Usually Converge

John Luke: While the split between what people feel and what they do is getting louder, they eventually converge. Job growth, income, and GDP are all holding up, with Q2 estimates now pushing higher. Right now, that story still looks solid, even if the vibes don’t match. Which will win?

Source: 3Fourteen Research as of 03.31.2025

S&P 500 Goes Full Rocket Mode

Beckham: A 20 percent move in just 28 days? That’s rare air for the S&P 500. The last three times this happened, the market was higher a year later. Short-term fireworks, long-term signal?

Source: 3Fourteen Research as of 05.28.2025

May Meant Business

Dave: The S&P 500 just had its best month since the fall of last year (and second largest month since last May). May continues to show up when bulls need a lift.

Source: Mike Zaccardi as of 05.31.2025

May Strength “May” Mean Strength

Arch: May posted a 5%+ gain for the S&P 500. Why does that matter? Because in every previous case where May gained more than 5%, the market was up over the next 12 months.

Source: Carson as of 05.28.2025

The World Takes a Strong Lead at the (Almost) Halfway Point

Joseph: Despite the bounce in May, the U.S. market is trailing international markets by the widest margin year-to-date since 1993.

Source: Bloomberg as of 05.31.2025

Is it Yields Keeping the US Down?

Brad: There’s no magic interest rate that kills equity returns. Since 1940, S&P 500 returns have shown no consistent pattern based on nominal yields.

Source: Shiller, Goldman as of 12.31.2024

Big Tech’s Valuation Diet

Arch: A portion of the relative lag in the U.S. is due to the MAG-5 seeing their P/E ratios drop as earnings caught up to price. These names are still priced at a premium to the broader market, but the decline has been real.

Source: Strategas as of 05.31.2025

The MAG-7 Premium… It’s All Relative

Brad: Yet the MAG-7 premium in relative terms compared to the rest of the S&P 500 has dropped to 43 percent, the lowest since 2017. Still higher, but justified?

Source: Strategas as of 05.31.2025

Small Caps, Large Red Flags

Dave: Investors can own small caps at a discount, but in many areas that discount may be justified. While that’s not unusual during speculative episodes, the current level suggests that broad small-cap exposure is still littered with unprofitable firms. An allocation to higher quality small-caps may be the antidote.

Source: Strategas as of 05.31.2025

Is the Fed Looking Yet?

John Luke: PCE inflation is sitting at 2.1 percent, right where the Fed wants it. Meanwhile, real yields are at decade highs. If the Fed is really data dependent, the case for a rate cut is getting stronger.

Source: Bloomberg as of 05.31.2025

Expensive Doesn’t Always Equal Worse

Brian: Yes, homes used to be cheaper. They were also way smaller (and used to lack plumbing). In 1950, most homes were well under 1,500 square feet, while today, less than 25% are under 1500 square feet. Today, buyers want offices, islands, and three bathrooms. Adjust your nostalgia accordingly.

Source: 24/7 Wall Street, Census, Aptus as of 12.31.2024

Takeaways

- Market reactions and economic reality often part ways
- Seasonality and momentum are alive and well
- Small caps still need a quality filter
- Big tech is still big, but not as bubbly
- Inflation is cooling, but not investor excitement

Disclosures

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.

This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment & tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.

Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2506-30.

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The Market in Pictures, May 30

Aptus PM Team — Fri, 30 May 2025 17:02:14 +0000

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from earnings and the economy, to international comps and DC taxes and spending. Enjoy!

John Luke: The S&P 500 has developed into a much more quality-focused index than in its past

Source: @warrenpies as of 05.28.2025

Dave: with Mag 7 tech names continuing to build on their fundamental leadership

Source: Raymond James as of 05.28.2025

Brett: While the chatter was that Q1 earnings calls would be void of future guidance, companies spoke confidently of their outlooks

Data as of 05.27.2025

Dave: which supported the overall positive tone coming out of Q1 earnings season

Arch: “Soft data” diverging (and ultimately converging) with hard data is not a new phenomenon

Data as of 05.23.2025

Joseph: and we’re starting to see the (weaker) soft data move in the direction of the hard data as the tariff tantrum subsides

Data as of 05.23.2025

Dave: On the subject of hard data, consumer spending of late has been both consistent and in line with income

Data as of April 2025

John Luke: with baby boomers the most reliable constituents, spending from both lifetime savings and fresh Social Security checks

Brad: China is no friend to the US as a whole, but the access has been a boon to US companies, especially those in technology and communications

Beckham: and while both US and Chinese corporations have benefited from access to cheaper input costs, China has started to look to other markets to reduce its reliance on the US

Data as of April 2025

John Luke: 2025 performance of US stocks vs. the rest of the world has been pretty weak

John Luke: but the 2025 catchup is tiny in comparison to the US dominance from 2020 through 2024

John Luke: The primary driver of US dominance has been superior fundamentals, as European companies in particular have continually failed to grow

Source: Alpine Macro as of 05.27.2025

Jake: and the US dominates the world in developing financially successful companies

Data as of March 2025

JD: We’re on to the “lower taxes and regulation” part of the DC agenda, with the proposed tax bill another source of juice for the economy

Data as of 05.23.2025

John Luke: and with the debt and deficit already in the danger zone, the policy approach would seem to favor running the economy fast enough to outgrow the expanding debt burden

Data as of 05.27.2025

Ten: The US government has no appetite to reduce the growth of spending

Data as of 05.25.2025

Brian: but US consumers have dramatically reduced their debt relative to assets

Data as of 05.28.2025

Brad: Market reactions to tariffs have become more tame, but there’s still a wide dispersion of possible paths

Data as of 05.29.2025

Disclosures

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.

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The Market in Pictures, May 23

Aptus PM Team — Fri, 23 May 2025 17:23:30 +0000

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from rising yields and the economy, to earnings and tariffs and valuations. Enjoy!

Beckham: Rising yields is not just a U.S. phenomenon

Data as of 05.22.2025

John Luke: though if you look at the past couple of years, it’s just been a rolling series of shifting narratives

Source: Piper Jaffray as of 05.21.2025

John Luke: either way, there’s no escaping the sharp rise in borrowing costs for the U.S. government

Data as of 05.16.2025

Brad: The current rates yo-yo revolves around the ongoing news cycle of high tariffs vs. low tariffs, and how that might flow into the Fed’s rate plans

Data as of 05.20.2025

John Luke: Stepping away from the tariff discussions, conditions for a severe recession just don’t seem to be there

Data as of 05.19.2025

Joseph: and consumers in general remain in very good shape with respect to debt

Brian: Younger buyers continue to have a hard time entering the housing market

Data as of March 2025

Jake: which takes away a huge population of potential buyers in a market where prices have generally flattened

Data as of 05.16.2025

Brett: For the first time since before the tariff tantrum, consensus earnings estimates are rising

Source: @LizAnnSonders

John Luke: with Mag 7 stocks leading the way with generally strong outlooks coming out of earnings calls

Source: The Market Ear as of 05.19.2025

Dave: and that better relative earnings performance has narrowed the valuation gap between the Mag 7 names and the rest of the market

Source: The Market Ear as of 05.19.2025

Arch: The cost of money has historically impacted equity valuations more in periods of positive correlation between stocks and bonds

Disclosures

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.

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The Market in Pictures, May 16

Aptus PM Team — Fri, 16 May 2025 16:49:07 +0000

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from the market bounce and poor sentiment, to earnings and the economy, to expectations for large vs. small stocks. Enjoy!

Beckham: It’s hard to classify this rally as a dead cat bounce, it’s been one of the better recoveries historically

Dave: and one that’s being achieved with no help from the bond market

Source: Raymond James as of 05.14.2025

Ten: Fund managers as a group seem reluctant to join the rally

Source: BofA as of 05.12.2025

Mark: with investor sentiment measures still tracking far more concern than euphoria

Data as of 05.09.2025

Brian: Speaking of sentiment, US consumers report themselves to be just as gloomy as fund managers

Graphic via WSJ as of 05.16.2025

Dave: with inflation expectations a particular sore spot and far above market and economist expectations

Data as of April 2025

John Luke: The ironic thing is that actual inflation measures continue to fall towards FOMC targets

Data as of 05.14.2025

John Luke: and CPI has been below expectations in each of the past 3 monthly reports

Data as of 05.14.2025

Brad: Walking back stated tariffs has been a big contributor to the market recovery, but Corporate America has been a big contributor as well

Data as of 05.13.2025

Dave: though the bar looks really high for the 2nd half of 2025

Source: Raymond James as of 05.09.2025

JD: Recession expectations are receding nicely, as investors re-embrace positive growth estimates

Data as of 05.09.2025

John Luke: as market participants digest the impact of tariffs that look to be higher but not as high as feared

Brad: Small cap stocks remain unable to sustainably outperform large caps

Data as of 05.15.2025

Dave: and concerns of higher rates won’t help their case

Dave: What small caps need is better earnings growth, which has been lacking for the past 9 quarters

Data as of 05.13.2025

Dave: with the constant hope that the improvement will come “next quarter”

Data as of 05.14.2025

John Luke: Markets are moving from the veggies (tariffs) to the dessert (lower taxes)

Source: CRFB as of 05.13.2025

John Luke: with uncertainty around the specs but a clear trend toward higher deficits

Disclosures

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.

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The Market in Pictures, May 9

Aptus PM Team — Fri, 09 May 2025 17:02:52 +0000

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from earnings and hyperscalers to soft vs. hard economic data. Enjoy!

Brad: Q1 sales and earnings have generally been better than the worst fears of a month ago

Data as of 05.06.2025

John Luke: with overall S&P 500 results running well ahead of expectations for Q1

Data as of 05.05.2025

Dave: The real issue is the outlook for the rest of the year

Source: Raymond James as of 05.09.2025

Brad: as forward earnings estimates take a hit

Source: Strategas as of 05.07.2025

Brett: With some industries seeing particularly sharp revisions lower

Source: Strategas as of 05.07.2025

Arch: and the overall pace getting into levels historically tied to FOMC rate cuts

Data as of 05.06.2025

Dave: For all of the angst over Mag 7 concentration, their market dominance has been in line with their superior fundamental results

Source: Raymond James as of 05.09.2025

John Luke: and their capital spending dwarfs other groups, with ripple effects through the economy

Graphic via BlackRock

Brian: Business surveys show sharply lower confidence amidst the trade uncertainty

Source: Goldman Sachs as of 05.02.2025

Joseph: with the ISM Manufacturing Survey falling into recession territory

Data as of 05.02.2025

Jake: but payroll data resilient enough to keep the FOMC from resuming their rate-cutting cycle

Graphic via WSJ as of 05.02.2025

Dave: Complicating the Fed’s efforts is the steadiness of inflation at levels above their stated preferences

Source: Strategas as of 05.08.2025

Beckham: and the high/rising expectations for input prices

Source: Apollo as of 04.26.2025

John Luke: Sentiment surveys have reached historically low levels of consumer confidence relative to real-world conditions

Data as of 05.05.2025

Brian: the divergence in public sentiment vs. stock market action is prompting debate about whether individuals are too gloomy about the economy

Data as of 05.05.2025

Ten: There is no playbook that works every time, but historically, some sectors have had outsized reactions to growth and inflation regimes

Joseph: The recent win streak for stocks stood out not only for its durability but also for the distance traveled

Data as of 05.05.2025

Disclosures

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.

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The Market in Pictures, May 2

Aptus PM Team — Fri, 02 May 2025 15:51:34 +0000

What a Month

JD: At one point, the S&P 500 was down over 10% intra-month, only to finish less than 1%. A reminder of how quickly sentiment and positioning can shift, as well as a very tough outcome for those who sold into the early weakness.

Source: Bloomberg as of 4.30.2025

Still Plenty of Strength Beneath the Surface

John Luke: While we can’t ignore the public debt overhang, the U.S. consumer and banking system are in far better shape than during the Global Financial Crisis (or even the brief banking hiccups we experienced a few years ago). That resilience could provide an important buffer for the consumer over the short run if growth does slow.

Source: FS Investments as of 4.17.2025

Dave: Despite the headlines, Q1 earnings and margins are holding up better than expected with profit margin anticipated to be above 12% for the 4^th straight quarter and higher margin forecasts throughout 2025.

Source: FactSet as of 4.28.2025

It’s Not All Rosy: Energy Does Not Just Have Short-Term Challenges

Joseph Sykora: At $65 Brent crude oil, most major oil companies aren’t generating enough free cash flow to cover shareholder payouts. The sector remains stuck between tepid demand and ample supply, which makes it tough to justify long-term exposure without a clearer path forward.

Source: RBC, Bloomberg as of 4.25.2025

GDP: Economic Noise or Signal?

Brian: Q1 GDP fell -0.3% annualized, mainly due to a spike in imports ahead of tariffs. Consumer demand remained strong, and understated inventories suggest likely upward revisions. The key Q2 question is if inventories aren’t replenished, will the production and employment situation slow?

Source: BEA as of 4.30.2025

Arch: Despite consumer strength, consumer sentiment has taken a hit. Most notably through record-high unsolicited negative comments on government economic policy, according to the University of Michigan survey. That shift likely reflects the tariff impact and brings up the question of whether sentiment may eventually impact spending.

Source: University of Michigan, Bloomberg as of 4.24.2025

Dave: Sentiment data like this should be taken with caution. Surveys increasingly reflect political leanings more than actual financial conditions.

Source: University of Michigan as of 4.24.2025

Beckham: Even if economic growth is sluggish or the small contraction does flow into Q2, it doesn’t guarantee poor equity performance. History shows that stocks often rebound sharply after recessionary bottoms. The market tends to look forward.

Source: Dimensional as of 4.24.2025

Why Asset Class Diversification Felt Broken

Arch: The recent selloff has challenged U.S.-centric portfolios. Stocks (SPY), long-term bonds (TLT), and the dollar (DXY) have all declined together, reducing the benefits of traditional diversification. It’s a reminder of the value of hedging and alternative exposures.

Source: Piper Sandler as of 4.28.2025

Derek: Part of the pressure has come from a reversal in foreign demand for U.S. assets. After years of steady inflows, foreign investors have become net sellers.

Source: GIR as of 4.24.2025

Ten: That shift in flows may have contributed to the market’s recent decline. The S&P 500’s 19% drop (albeit short-lived) marks the 19th time since 1950 we’ve seen a 15%+ drawdown.

Source: Goldman Sachs as of 4.8.2025

Dollar Dollar Bill Yall

Brian: Stocks, bonds, and commodities all bounced in the past month. But the dollar hasn’t. Are we entering a new regime for the dollar, or is it just lagging while markets await further tariff clarity?

Source: Bloomberg as of 4.28.2025

Jake: Once again, investors who bought the dip have been rewarded. It’s a pattern that’s held time and again, despite the noise.

Source: Bianco Research as of 4.24.2025

Disclosures

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.

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The Market in Pictures, April 25

Aptus PM Team — Fri, 25 Apr 2025 17:29:40 +0000

Brian: We started the week with talk of (negative) death crosses

Source: Quantifiable Edges as of 04.18.2025

Jake: and finished with (positive) breadth thrusts

Data as of 04.24.2025

Beckham: Through the correction, the broader market of stocks had held up better than the concentrated leaders at the top

Image via @ryandetrick

Brett: and then were treated to an amazing display of strength across the index

Ten: With the US dollar selloff, the drawdown in equities was even harsher for foreign holders of US stocks

Data as of 04.22.2025

Joseph: which comes after a period of increasing ownership of US stocks in those countries

Source: TS Lombard as of 04.17.2025

Beckham: It’s not just access to cheap consumer items that spooked markets

Source: Apollo as of 04.19.2025

Brian: and we’ll soon be better able to evaluate the economic impact as shipping activity falls

Joseph: either way, investors seem to feel most comfortable with Treasury Secretary Bessent as the economic voice

Arch: By this composite measure of conditions, access to money is close to the midpoint of the historical range

Brad: but fund managers responding to surveys are bracing for an increased chance of recession

Data as of 04.17.2025

Brad: yet credit spreads remain tame relative to past periods of economic weakness

Dave: Much of the economic debate remains split between hard (actual) and soft (survey) data

Data as of 04.17.2025

Arch: and companies themselves aren’t sure how best to navigate (current) risk and (future) opportunity

Data as of 04.17.2025

Brad: When it comes to stocks, fund managers have gotten themselves pretty bearish

Data as of 04.17.2025

Joseph: and when it comes to buying plans, US stocks have become a target for reduction

Data as of 04.17.2025

Brian: For better or worse, this puts “professional” investors in the same camp as the often-mocked amateurs

Source: Bloomberg as of 04.17.2025

Dave: It’s a hard quarter to evaluate, but ultimately earnings will be the driver of future stock prices, with 2026 becoming more relevant

Data as of 04.23.2025

John Luke: a big challenge will be threading the needle on costs vs. pricing, at least in the short-term

Source: Bloomberg as of 04.21.2025

JD: and in general, non-tech companies have faced too much competition to create a whole lot of cushion

Data as of March 2025

John Luke: For context, a history of significant US equity drawdowns and the paths to recapturing all-time highs

Data as of 04.17.2025

Disclosures

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.

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The Market in Pictures, April 17

Aptus PM Team — Thu, 17 Apr 2025 20:22:13 +0000

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from the US dollar to bonds to the economy to US and foreign stock markets. Happy Easter to you!

Brett: The value of the US dollar is off to its weakest start of the past 20 years

Data as of 04.16.2025

John Luke: The dollar weakness is also feeding into the rise in Treasury yields

Data as of 04.14.2025

Arch: and is likely tied to the extraordinary moves in the bond market in recent weeks

Source: Apollo as of 04.10.2025

John Luke: Investors and economists are trying to evaluate the timing and validity of soft vs. hard data, meaning surveys vs. actual output

Brian: Survey data has turned unequivocally lower on tariff uncertainty

Source: @thestalwart as of 04.16.2025

Joseph: while output data has stayed strong, perhaps due to buyers getting out in front of tariffs

Jake: either way, pronounced economic weakness would be likely to do more harm than good to deficit reduction efforts

Data as of 04.15.2025

John Luke: Strategist targets are predictably being chased lower

Source: Strategas as of 04.14.2025

Ten: and we’re now in a volatility zone from which prices have historically shown higher potential

Joseph: Developed economy growth estimates are coming down at a pretty good clip

Data as of 04.13.2025

Arch: given the higher exposure to US assets, our markets are more a bit more prone to an unwinding

Brad: As we head into earnings season, the correction in prices means lower valuations especially for the formerly popular Mag 7 names

Brett: the question is, have expectations fallen enough to allow for relief rallies as earnings pass

Data as of 04.14.2025

Brad: One hope for the US economy vs. others is its lighter reliance on trade as a portion of the economy

Disclosures

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.

Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2504-24.

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The Market in Pictures, April 11

Aptus PM Team — Fri, 11 Apr 2025 18:26:46 +0000

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from historic market movement to inflation and of course, tariffs. Enjoy!

Brad: High VIX has coincided with near-term weakness, but the benefit of improving chances for long-term upside once cleared

Brett: and a run of consecutive high VIX closes has occurred only in the wildest of markets, with chop continuing but room for upside

Source: @subutrade as of 04.08.2025

Beckham: While markets are digesting Wednesday’s huge move higher, history has shown those moves to be a potential precursor to continued strength

Brad: Historically, a 20% drawdown in the S&P 500 has been a generally good time to put money to work

Source: Raymond James as of 04.07.2025

Brad: with broad strength across stocks of all sizes and styles

Data as of 04.07.2025

Joseph: Pundits and strategists seem split on recession vs. no recession, but in general, a 20% drop in the S&P 500 has indicated material economic weakness

Data as of 04.08.2025

Brad: but if high-yield spreads are an indicator of economic strength or weakness, the evidence for a recession is not there yet

Brian: One of the more notable moves in the past week has been a complete loss of strength in the US dollar

Chart via WSJ as of 04.09.2025

Jake: and while the general trend of US Dollar leadership remains in place, it’s in a more tenuous spot than in recent years

Data as of 04.09.2025

John Luke: Bonds are providing very little support to equity investors hoping to diversify away from extreme outcomes

Dave: with bonds especially unhelpful after the tariff announcement

Chart via WSJ as of 04.09.2025

Dave: Government inflation headlines show a steady reduction in year-over-over price increases

Data as of 04.10.2025

JD: but when you look at the cumulative rise in the cost of the items we consume, you can see why protecting purchasing power is critical

Data as of 04.10.2025

Dave: Earnings season is here, with anxiety hopefully setting the table for the typical batch of positive surprises

Data as of 04.04.2025

John Luke: The greater question for earnings is, how much will the attempt at deficit reduction impact the amazing rise in corporate profit margins?

Source: Hussman Strategic Advisors as of 04.05.2025

Disclosures

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.

Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2504-17.

The post The Market in Pictures, April 11 appeared first on Aptus Capital Advisors.

The Market in Pictures, April 4

Aptus PM Team — Fri, 04 Apr 2025 17:42:32 +0000

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from the equity market correction to the economy and inflation and, of course, tariffs. Enjoy!

Beckham: Anyone who claims a crystal ball to future outcomes is either naïve or lying; corrections may rhyme, but they rarely repeat

Brett: and if you hone in on just the history after the 10% threshold has been reached, it’s even more clear how different the path of each outcome can be

Arch: Not only are the end points different in price, but they vary quite a bit in time as well

Data as of 04.01.2025

John Luke: and with policy uncertainty readings already on par with the most memorable episodes in recent history, it’s important to remember that widespread anxiety often sets the table for higher prices

Source: Strategas as of 04.02.2025

John Luke: Tariffs are obviously grabbing every headline, here’s a summary of pros and cons from Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio

Source: @AllioCapital as of 04.02.2025

John Luke: and an estimate of the initially proposed tariff rates relative to US trade history

Data as of 04.03.2025

Joseph: Here is a decent summary of the before and after tariff rates across the largest exporters to the U.S.

Source: Goldman Sachs as of 04.03.2025

Ten: It’s important to note that the proposed tariffs apply only to imported goods, not services

Data as of March 2025

John Luke: that split between goods and services is also prominent in tracking inflation figures

Source: WSJ as of 04.01.2025

Jake: Moving to jobs, we’ve seen large DOGE-driven cuts, but it’s not yet spilled over into the private sector

Source: Koyfin via Daily Chartbook as of 04.01.2025

Brad: and while market lore says credit markets always sniff out trouble before equities, it’s not always the case

Brian: We can’t guess at the full range of policy goals, but Treasury Secretary Bessent was clear on his desire for lower rates, oil prices, and US dollar

Data as of 04.03.2025

JD: and as markets fall we’ll soon find out whether the “Fed Put” is still a thing

Disclosures

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.

Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2504-12.

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