by John Luke Tyner | May 30, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
While there is certainly a lot going on in rates markets, it’s been interesting to see participants give more attention to the fiscal backdrop of the US government. It comes as no surprise that the weighted average cost of our government debt has increased...
by John Luke Tyner | May 21, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
Last Friday, Moody’s rating agency lowered the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 (their version of AA+). Technically, this doesn’t change the US’s overall credit rating because it was already split-rated AA+. This follows downgrades by S&P in 2011 and Fitch in...
by John Luke Tyner | May 8, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
→ FED SAYS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT OUTLOOK HAS ‘INCREASED FURTHER’ → FED: RISKS OF HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT, HIGHER INFLATION HAVE RISEN → FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 4.25%-4.5% TARGET RANGE Source: Bloomberg as of 05.7.2025 The Fed has cut the fed funds...
by John Luke Tyner | Apr 25, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
President Trump Critiques the Fed Earlier this week, President Trump indicated he thinks the Fed should be “early, or on time” cutting rates, but not “too late,” adding it is “a perfect time to lower the rate.” Pressed by a reporter asking if the President has the...
by John Luke Tyner | Apr 11, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
CPI Update: Softer Than Feared The latest inflation report showed that consumer prices cooled more than expected. The CPI fell -0.1% in March, the first monthly decline since May 2020. The median forecast expected the CPI to rise 0.1% in March. YoY, consumer prices...
by Joseph Sykora | Mar 21, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
Fed Waiting, Like the Rest of Us The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week, deciding to leave the reserve rate unchanged as expected (a unanimous decision amongst voters). The Fed’s so-called “dot plot,” which projects participants’ expectations...
